Libya
What happened in Libya was distinctly different from what had, and will, happen in the Arab world; Unlike in Tunis or Egypt the Libyan insurrection was not a true revolution (not that the others were) against a specific ideology, system or elite but an attempt by one tribe to seize power from another. Why now? Two reasons: firstly by warming relations with the west Gaddafi opened the borders to not only to foreign investment but to foreign gadgets, media and propaganda and in doing so allowed a gradual change in popular attitudes (specifically amongst the rebel tribe(s)) to take place, associating democracy with higher living standards that many saw in the west. Secondly, the wave of disorder sweeping through Africa and the middle east very likely served as a useful cover for the fruition of western interests manifesting in an apparently organic coup but one nevertheless most likely inspired through political or clandestine back channels*.
When looking at the present military action against Gaddafi it is first necessary to be completely free of the trappings of propaganda and ideology if there is to be any hope of reaching a sane conclusion. The rhetoric of "humanitarian" military intervention or "democracy" is a lie and one best left to those in the lucrative business of public relations. Democracy is not and has never been an aim of western policy yet it remains a useful tool both for providing a palatable causes beli and an easily controlled yet acceptable government. The intervention in Libya is motivated by interest, the debate over pragmatism or idealism being a distraction. The intervention is in the interest of the west for numerous reason specific to each nation (France, Britain and the US) but only a few applicable to all. Specifically the creation of a common enemy or even a war serves as a useful distraction from domestic problems which is especially significant in the case of the European powers where both governments are politically weak and may give greater than usual weight to the political implications of any decision. Strategically I lack the understanding to give a comprehensive or reliable analysis but it is apparent that a fractured Libya under a new regime will be far less likely to act in it's own interest over that of the west (providing the ruling elite that emerges is bought off in time).
N.B: The dramatically increased interest in Libya may well indicate the discovery, as yet unannounced, of large oil or gas supplies by BP.
Member discussion